Bus Arrival Time Reliability Analyses and Dynamic Prediction Model Based on Multi-source Data

  • Author / Creator
  • In recent years, with increased urbanization and vehicle ownership, congestion levels have been increasing in urban areas although new infrastructure is being developed to meet the increasing demand. An understanding of bus service reliability is necessary to develop strategies that help transit agencies provide better services. In addition, a reliable and accurate vehicle arrival prediction system can help in making public transportation more attractive. This study first aims to quantify and determine temporal and weather related bus arrival time variability in Edmonton. A multinomial logit model is developed and estimated, which relates early, late and on-time bus arrivals to weather, temporal and operating characteristics. The model results show that the probability of on-time failures increases during PM peak periods, as buses progress further along their routes and under adverse weather conditions. Secondly, a proposed bus tracing algorithm and bus arrival time prediction algorithm are then applied to predict bus travel time using Global Positioning System (GPS) data and Vehicle Detect System (VDS) data, also, a regression model based on the factors found from the multinomial logit model is applied as a comparison. A case study is conducted on one selected bus routes in Edmonton, to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm in terms of prediction accuracy. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm is capable of achieving satisfactory accuracy in predicting bus arrival time.

  • Subjects / Keywords
  • Graduation date
    Fall 2016
  • Type of Item
  • Degree
    Master of Science
  • DOI
  • License
    This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.